Edit: I am still running my laptop and desktop.
Originally posted December 16, 2014 on AIXchange
Lately I’ve read several commentators predict that desktops and laptops will soon be completely replaced by tablets and phones. I sure hope they’re wrong.
Although there’s much to be said for the portability of a phone or a tablet, I still find that there’s much value to be derived from a laptop. Consider this scenario:
“In the classroom, I took my brand new iPhone 6, plugged it into the lecture theatre’s HDMI port, and ran the whole presentation — in high definition, complete with nicely animated transitions — off my phone.”
Really? Surely the author didn’t use his iPhone 6 to create that presentation? What device would you use to look up the material, edit it together and prepare it to be copied over to the iPhone 6?
One thing I’d immediately want in that scenario is multiple monitors, the bigger the better. One screen to search for the clips, and another open with my editing software to create the presentation.
“My friend runs the IT infrastructure for one of Australia’s most successful online retailers. It’s his job to make sure the customer-facing systems ringing up sales are available 24×7. Always on call, getting texts advising him of the status of his servers, services, and staff, he keeps a laptop close at hand, in case something ever needs his personal attention. Something always does.
“‘Got a little Bluetooth keyboard to go along with it,’ he continued. ‘When I’m in the office I’ll AirPlay it over to an Apple TV connected to a monitor. What’s the difference between that and a desktop?'”
To me one difference is the tools I’m using to do the job. I still have a pretty decent keyboard and pointing stick, which I still feel is a superior “mouse” compared to a track pad. With this new rig they are proposing I would have to make sure to charge my Bluetooth keyboard and find some free monitor I can use somewhere. I’d prefer to just carry the whole thing with me.
“The desktop has been dead for some years, resurrected to an afterlife of video editing and CAD. Laptops keep getting smaller and more powerful, but we’ve now reached a moment when they’re less useful than our smartphones.
“The laptop market will not collapse overnight. There’s a lot of inertia in IT — people like what they like and tend to use what they know — but the current cycle of PC replacements is likely to be the last one.
“The computer as we have known it, with integrated keyboard and display, has lost its purpose in a world of tiny, powerful devices that can cast to any nearby screen (Chromecast & AirPlay), browse any website, and run all the important apps. Why carry a boat anchor when you can be light as a feather?”
Maybe this is part of my problem. I like my boat anchors. I like knowing that I have an optical device I can use to burn DVDs in a pinch. I like knowing I can pull out that DVD burner and replace it with a second hard drive. I like knowing I can max out the memory and run some flavor of virtualization software (like VMware) and run multiple operating systems at once.
No doubt, many things can be done with a phone, a Bluetooth keyboard and a borrowed monitor. I’m sure for some if not most users, it’s all they need:
“We still rely on devices with processors and memory, they are just different devices. The mobility trend has been clear for years with notebooks today demanding larger market share than desktops. And one thing significant about notebooks is they required of us our first compromise in terms of screen size. I write today mainly on a 13-inch notebook which replaced a 21-inch desktop, yet I don’t miss the desktop. I don’t miss it because the total value proposition is so much better with the notebook.
“What’s still missing are clearcut options for better I/O — better keyboards and screens or their alternatives — but I think those are very close. I suspect we’ll shortly have new wireless docking options, for example. For $150 today you can buy a big LCD display, keyboard, and mouse if you know where to shop. Add wireless docking equivalent to the hands-free Bluetooth device in your car and you are there.”
If you believe some people, the end of the desktop and laptop is already here:
“This year we’ll see an important structural change take place in the PC hardware market. I’m not saying there won’t still be desktop and notebook PCs to buy, but far fewer of us will be buying them….
“The iPhone in your pocket will become your desktop whenever you are within range of your desktop display, keyboard and mouse. These standalone devices [were] Apple’s big sellers in 2014 and [will be] big sellers for HP and Dell in 2015 and beyond. The next iPod/iPhone/iPad will be a family of beautiful AirPlay displays that will serve us just fine for at least five years linked to an ever-changing population of iPhones.”
Have you ditched your laptop because you can do everything you need to do from your phone? Are you close to doing so? I can’t be the only dinosaur out here.